Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.910236 14.755712 16.756509 19.084926 21.718234 24.602096 27.997864
2024-10-27 9.577811 11.909590 14.641360 18.070792 22.253652 27.182075 33.421861
2024-11-03 8.407640 11.027197 14.249710 18.491917 23.915070 30.600204 39.449792
2024-11-10 7.509613 10.324068 13.938367 18.898411 25.504387 33.973153 45.623903
2024-11-17 6.603637 9.462338 13.274488 18.699710 26.187430 36.118228 50.242164
2024-11-24 5.811544 8.650476 12.569436 18.335069 26.555107 37.798302 54.276808
2024-12-01 5.272502 8.125756 12.190529 18.353891 27.402917 40.128816 59.291734
2024-12-08 4.894494 7.789809 12.036233 18.656441 28.641821 43.046258 65.278811
2024-12-15 4.523292 7.422385 11.793194 18.788665 29.611604 45.601924 70.860070
2024-12-22 4.128096 6.976568 11.386583 18.625130 30.100037 47.445121 75.454317
2024-12-29 3.855774 6.699167 11.212168 18.796484 31.095373 50.084795 81.383348
2025-01-05 3.700984 6.598615 11.305606 19.391379 32.782432 53.868541 89.286472
2025-01-12 3.396856 6.225433 10.934940 19.215510 33.238115 55.781639 94.409775
2025-01-19 2.967894 5.597121 10.088093 18.176856 32.193232 55.213274 95.473956
2025-01-26 2.835272 5.482021 10.104630 18.606359 33.634608 58.776315 103.531103
2025-02-02 2.709718 5.367681 10.111086 19.013209 35.054613 62.372727 111.834675
2025-02-09 2.504597 5.085560 9.793942 18.814024 35.388232 64.126676 117.061657
2025-02-16 2.295530 4.776751 9.402771 18.447053 35.388443 65.288658 121.300403
2025-02-23 2.156456 4.592387 9.228048 18.466055 36.085408 67.702383 127.871449
2025-03-02 2.064030 4.493109 9.206386 18.770335 37.324587 71.143514 136.464525
2025-03-09 1.958058 4.356599 9.101344 18.903332 38.242761 74.041562 144.206297
2025-03-16 1.827312 4.156614 8.855159 18.738848 38.573324 75.862844 150.030807
2025-03-23 1.742381 4.046844 8.781344 18.911194 39.565580 78.964452 158.410406